Docs / DEWS
DEWS — Depeg Early Warning System
DEWS is a forward-looking stress indicator, not a depeg confirmation. While the main risk score detects an active depeg in price, DEWS captures the structural and market conditions that typically precede one — giving analysts a lead time of hours to days.
Each stablecoin receives a 0–100 DEWS score daily. Higher = more pre-stress. Missing signals are skipped and weights renormalised so the score is always comparable regardless of data availability.
Threat Bands
| Band | Score range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| CALM | 0 – 15 | No notable pre-stress signals. Normal market conditions. |
| WATCH | 16 – 40 | One or more early warning signals present. Monitor closely. |
| ALERT | 41 – 75 | Multiple stress signals active. Heightened depeg probability. |
| DANGER | 76 – 100 | Severe stress across multiple dimensions. Depeg highly probable. |
11 Sub-signals
Weights sum to 1.0 when all signals are present. Each is normalised to 0–1 before weighting. Signals with no available data are excluded and weights renormalised.
| Signal | Weight | Max risk threshold | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| supply_velocity | 17% | ≥10% minted in 24h | Rapid minting relative to total supply — can signal backing strain or coordinated exit. |
| pool_balance_drift | 11% | DEX pool 100% one-sided | DEX pool imbalance. A Curve/Uniswap pool drifting away from 50/50 indicates directional selling pressure. |
| liquidity_erosion | 12% | ≥50% drop vs 7d avg | Providers pulling liquidity before a depeg — often the first sign of insider information. |
| price_confidence | 10% | Confidence = 'fallback' | Inverted DeFiLlama price source confidence. Low confidence means the price feed is thin or unreliable. |
| cross_source_divergence | 10% | ≥1% spread across sources | Spread between price data sources. Divergence often precedes a confirmed depeg. |
| blacklist_activity | 8% | ≥3 freeze events in 7d | Recent address freezes by the issuer. Elevated freeze activity can signal sanctions pressure or exploits. |
| mint_burn_flow | 8% | bank_run_gauge = max | Bank-run gauge from the mint/burn flows tracker. High burn-to-mint ratio signals redemption pressure. |
| mint_role_centralization | 8% | Single EOA controls minting | Whether a single externally-owned address can mint without multisig. Captures USR/Usual-style exploit risk. |
| tvl_supply_divergence | 5% | On-chain supply > DeFiLlama TVL | On-chain token supply significantly exceeds DeFiLlama's tracked TVL — potential unbacked minting. |
| yield_anomaly | 4% | APY spike >3σ above history | Unsustainably high yield spikes often reflect protocol distress or attempts to attract exit liquidity. |
| whale_concentration | 7% | Top-10 holders ≥80% of supply | High top-10 holder concentration amplifies bank-run severity if whales exit simultaneously. Source: GeckoTerminal/Moralis. |
Update Cadence & Data Sources
- DEWS scores — recalculated daily at 04:00 UTC.
- Supply velocity & mint/burn flow — from the mint/burn flows tracker (S3).
- Pool balance drift — from DeFiLlama liquidity pool data.
- Liquidity erosion — 7-day rolling average from DeFiLlama TVL.
- Price confidence & cross-source divergence — from DeFiLlama price API.
- Blacklist activity — from the freeze tracker (daily at 03:00 UTC).
- Whale concentration — from the contamination pipeline (Moralis + GeckoTerminal, daily midnight).
- Mint role centralization & TVL divergence — require Etherscan API keys (currently skipped).
DEWS vs. Risk Score
| Risk Score | DEWS Score | |
|---|---|---|
| Measures | Active peg deviation | Pre-depeg structural stress |
| Signal type | Reactive (current price) | Forward-looking (leading indicators) |
| Updates | Every 5 minutes | Daily |
| Lead time | None (concurrent) | Hours to days before price breaks |
| Primary use | Alert triage, tier assignment | Risk management, early positioning |